"I was reading an article in the latest issue of a well-recognized Investment Newsletter," wrote on of our readers, Tony Ghezzo, a frequent contributor to our PressPoints NetNews. "The commentary reminded me of the importance of the Romans in History. A more complete statement follows the beginning excerpt.
"When the Romans left Britain in 410 AD, the quality of life fell dramatically. The standard of living did not recover in Britain (and Europe) until, perhaps, more than 1,000 years later."
[NOTE: Curiously enough it took the Rinascimento, often inaccurately referred to as the Renaissance period in our history. Originating and predominately flourishing in Italy, the Rinascimento pulled Europe out of it's funk. At the same time, Columbus discovered America, which helped Spain to become a predominate world power, which, in turn, led to the demise of the power of the Italy City States, which led to "foreign occupation" of that country for the next 350 years.]
So now we come back to our present economy. StockScape states:
Most people take material progress for granted. But material progress it not a stabilizer of good times. The idea of a 17-year bear market shocks investors as much as economists are appalled at the suggestion of a Japan-style 11-year slowdown. A deceleration, which, by the way, was postulated in an article I had read over fifteen years ago which asked: What if the West, the largest consumer of the Pacific Rim's country's goods, were to suddenly become saturated and stop buying those goods?
But markets, assets, living standards, and incomes can go down for very long periods. The Romans brought innovations such as baths and running water to Britain. When they left in 410 AD, the quality of life fell dramatically. The standard of living did not recover in Britain until, perhaps, more than 1,000 years later. That "perhaps" is there because no one really knows what had actually happened. We only speculate. But it is almost certain that the Anglo-Saxons in Britain lived more primitively than the Romans had, at least until after the Norman Conquest in 1066...and probably forward on into the 18th century.
Throughout Europe, the story was much the same. The Romans stopped a long decline and fall early in the First Millennium, which finally "returned to trend", when the Visigoths sacked Rome in 410 AD...the same year the Romans left Britain. Thereafter, standards of material prosperity declined...only to return to Roman Empire levels many centuries later. Economists and historians have used up many pens, much ink, and a lot of typewriter ribbon attempting to explain why all these trends happen - but let's face it no one really knows.
In the Middle Ages progress was very slow - with some areas "backwards walking" for decades. Compounding those bad times, all of Europe was hit periodic setbacks, disease, bad weather and war, all of which devastated the continent.
Take the wars of religion, for example. The havoc those wars wrought changed the structure of the then known world. Burned were the fields that kept the continent fed. Abandoned or destroyed in the wake of the holy armies were whole towns. And the peasants took refuge from murderous armies by hiding in the hills and forests - where they often starved.
Then along came the 20th century, a time when most people grew richer in, but not all. In the Soviet Union, for example, people labored hard for 70 years - only to get poorer each year. And even while other peoples in the world made material progress, trends in art, architecture, crime, politics, and manners were mostly retrograde.
In America, stocks rose in the average year of the 20th century. But an investor could have held stocks for 50 years - from 1929 to 1979 - with zero capital gains in real terms.
Editor's Note:
So, what are we SNIPPEN' n' GRIPPEN' about? Mr. Ghezzo makes a strong argument that our current hard economy is only history repeating itself!